October 7, 2025: Consolidation near $80 per pound signals a more sustainable base for the next leg higher

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This week on Uranium Spotlight Podcast: 

1. Spot price softens as activity cools
2. US uranium sourcing undergoes major shift 
3. Orano repositions from West Africa to Central Asia 
4. India's private sector embraces nuclear energy 
5. NexGen and UEC bolster capital strength for nuclear expansion 

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Transcript

It’s October 7, 2025, and this week on Uranium Spotlight: spot prices ease after recent highs, the latest U.S. data reveals shifting uranium sourcing trends, Orano pivots from Africa to Central Asia, India’s private sector dives into nuclear power, and NexGen and UEC close major financings.

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Spot Price Softens as Activity Cools

The uranium spot price opened last week at $82.00 per pound U₃O₈ and closed at $81.00, down one dollar. Trading volume eased to about one million pounds across ten transactions—far below the previous week’s pace, which had seen nearly triple that volume as financial buyers retreated from the market.

By midweek, offers at all major delivery points—Cameco, ConverDyn, and Orano—had slipped back into parity at $81.00. Earlier firmness in the ConverDyn delivery channel, which briefly reached $82.50, quickly faded as bids dried up. Term contracting remained subdued, with utilities largely in evaluation mode following a busy September that saw over 7.5 million pounds trade hands.

The Long-Term Price remains steady at $82.00 per pound, with the three- and five-year forwards at $90 and $98, respectively—confirming that longer-term expectations remain intact despite short-term softness. Conversion and enrichment markets were also quiet, as participants continued digesting results from UxC’s Summer Market Survey, which suggested both conversion and enrichment prices may be peaking.

For investors, the key takeaway is that after a sharp rally through September, the uranium spot market has paused for breath. Consolidation near $80 per pound signals a more sustainable base for the next leg higher—particularly as utilities prepare for renewed term contracting later this quarter.

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U.S. Uranium Sourcing Undergoes Major Shift

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2024 Uranium Marketing Report revealed a significant reshaping of America’s supply chain. Total uranium purchases by U.S. utilities rose nearly 8% year-over-year, from about 52 million to 56 million pounds, but where that uranium came from has changed dramatically.

The most striking move was a sharp decline in Russian supply. Imports of Russian uranium concentrate fell from 12% of total U.S. purchases in 2023 to just 4% last year, while Russian enriched product and fabricated fuel dropped from 27% to 20%. The shift reflects the lingering impact of the Banning Russian Uranium Imports Act and the accelerating realignment of the Western fuel cycle.

Replacing those lost volumes, Canadian uranium surged to capture 36% of total U.S. imports, up nine points year over year. Kazakhstan followed with 24%, while Australian material slipped to 17%. Uzbekistan contributed 9%, Namibia 4%, and U.S.-mined uranium rose to 8%—a modest but meaningful gain as domestic production recovers from historic lows.

The takeaway is clear: the U.S. is becoming more dependent on Canada. While Canada presents minimal geopolitical risk, the Athabasca Basin’s experience in 2007—when flooding at Cigar Lake rattled global supply—remains a cautionary tale. More recently, wildfires across northern Saskatchewan underscored the region’s vulnerability to natural events, even if operations were largely unaffected.

For investors, this reshuffling reinforces two key dynamics. First, supply concentration increases fragility—a disruption in one region now carries global consequences. Second, it underscores how critical the Western supply chain rebuild has become. With Russia and parts of Africa increasingly unstable, North American uranium will command a growing premium, benefitting miners positioned within that secure supply corridor.

Orano Repositions from West Africa to Central Asia

After the World Bank arbitration ruling last week barred Niger from exporting uranium from the SOMAIR mine without compensating Orano, the French fuel-cycle major moved quickly to reclaim lost ground. Orano revealed that roughly three million pounds of uranium had been mined but stranded in-country during the Nigerien coup period—ore produced when the company still held operational control but could not export due to border closures with Benin.

Rather than dwell on that loss, Orano is shifting its focus eastward. Construction has begun on a new in-situ recovery project in Uzbekistan’s Navoi region, developed through a joint venture with Japan’s ITOCHU Corporation. Initial output is expected to reach one million pounds annually, ramping toward 1.5 million pounds.

This new Uzbek venture will not fully replace the four million pounds per year previously sourced from Orano’s Niger assets—SOMAIR and the still-idled IMOURAREN deposit—but it represents a strategic rebalancing toward more politically stable jurisdictions. Uzbekistan has welcomed Western investment and is rapidly emerging as Central Asia’s most open uranium producer, offering proximity to existing infrastructure and strong export logistics.

For Orano, the pivot signals a broader industry truth: geopolitical diversification is now an operational imperative. As supply risks in Africa persist and Russia remains largely isolated from Western markets, Central Asia has become a focal point for new production alliances.

For investors, the message is fairly straightforward—companies able to navigate this new geography of uranium supply will define the next cycle’s winners. Orano’s move to Uzbekistan underscores how the global fuel market is quietly reorganizing itself around security of access rather than lowest cost.

India’s Private Sector Embraces Nuclear Energy

In a landmark move, India’s Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) has invited bids from major industrial conglomerates to build and operate captive nuclear reactors dedicated to their own industrial needs. These reactors will not feed the national grid but instead supply power directly to their sponsors—an unprecedented model in the country’s nuclear history.

Six corporate giants have stepped forward: Tata Group, Adani Power, Jindal Steel & Power, JSW Energy, Hindalco Industries, and Reliance Industries. Collectively, they have identified 16 potential sites across six Indian statesto host these 200-MWe “Bharat Small Modular Reactors” (BSMRs).

The implications are enormous. India’s nuclear industry has long been dominated by state operators constrained by liability laws that discouraged private participation. Those barriers are now being loosened as the government seeks to accelerate power generation capacity amid surging demand and rapid industrialization.

These projects could mark the start of a privately financed nuclear buildout rivaling India’s entire existing fleet. Each participating conglomerate brings vast experience in complex infrastructure—from airports and ports to rail and power networks—making them well equipped to deliver turnkey nuclear facilities once reserved for government programs.

If all proposed tenders proceed, the initiative could alone contribute several gigawatts of capacity toward India’s target of 100 GWe of nuclear power by 2047, the centennial of its independence. International suppliers will play a key role in fuel and technology provision, positioning Kazakhstan, Canada, and potentially Uzbekistan as likely uranium sources.

For investors, this matters because India is quietly emerging as the next major pillar of uranium demand. With both state and private entities now aligned, long-term growth in nuclear fuel consumption is virtually guaranteed. As these reactors move from concept to construction, utilities worldwide will face tighter competition for available uranium, reinforcing the bullish case for higher sustained prices.

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NexGen and UEC Bolster Capital Strength for Nuclear Expansion

Two major financings last week underscored the capital markets’ renewed confidence in the uranium sector’s growth trajectory.

NexGen Energy Ltd. announced C$400 million in gross proceeds from a North American bought-deal offering, alongside a concurrent AUD$400 million placement in Australia. The combined C$800-million equivalent raiserepresents one of the largest equity financings ever completed by a uranium developer. Proceeds will advance engineering and early pre-production work at NexGen’s flagship Rook I Project in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin. The offering, jointly led by Merrill Lynch Canada and Aitken Mount Capital Partners, was structured under the Canada-U.S. Multi-Jurisdictional Disclosure System and will close mid-October pending exchange approvals.

Meanwhile, Uranium Energy Corp. successfully closed its US$203.8 million public offering through Goldman Sachs. UEC plans to channel the funds into accelerating development of the United States Uranium Refining & Conversion Corp., its wholly owned subsidiary tasked with building a domestic uranium refining and conversion facility. The project would represent a cornerstone of America’s re-emerging nuclear fuel infrastructure, complementing federal initiatives aimed at restoring domestic processing capacity.

For investors, the key takeaway is this: the capital tide is turning decisively toward nuclear. NexGen’s and UEC’s financings reflect deep institutional appetite for credible uranium projects tied to secure, Western supply chains. As governments prioritize energy security and clean baseload generation, these well-funded developers are positioned at the forefront of the sector’s next growth phase.