September 30, 2025: Uranium's supply-demand imbalance is no longer just a spot market story

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This week on Uranium Spotlight Podcast: 

1. Long-term uranium price breaks higher
2. Sprott’s buying spree and the real supply squeeze
3. Court ruling freezes Niger’s uranium
4. Russia pushes global reactor deals with BRICS backing

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Transcript

It’s Tuesday, September 30th, 2025, and this week on Uranium Spotlight: Long-term uranium prices finally break higher, Sprott steps up its physical buying spree, a court ruling freezes Niger’s uranium exports, and Russia expands its global reactor deals with BRICS support.

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Long-Term Uranium Price Breaks Higher

Uranium’s long-term contract price finally blinked last week—after holding steady for more than a year, it climbed by two dollars to $82 per pound. That matches the spot close at $82, but the significance here is in the signal the term market is sending. Utilities rarely adjust long-term contracting benchmarks without good reason, and this shift reflects the persistent upward pressure across the entire fuel cycle.

Spot activity was certainly lively, with more than three million pounds trading hands, but it’s the forward curve that matters for developers and producers. The three-year forward price is now at $90 per pound, and the five-year sits near $98. These numbers tell us that buyers are starting to price in sustained tightness—not just a temporary squeeze.

Elsewhere in the cycle, conversion and UF6 markets also firmed. North American UF6 values jumped by $20 this month to $277 per kilogram, closely tracking the rising uranium component. Conversion prices softened slightly on the spot side, but term conversion offers remain firm, highlighting that utilities are still working to lock down future supply.

For investors, the real takeaway is that the long-term price has finally caught up with the spot. When contract benchmarks rise, they validate higher incentive prices for new mines and strengthen the economics of existing projects. This is the type of signal utilities, producers, and the capital markets have been waiting for—and it underscores that uranium’s supply-demand imbalance is no longer just a spot market story.

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Sprott’s Buying Spree and the Real Supply Squeeze

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, the largest holder of uranium globally, now controls more than 70 million pounds. Over the past two weeks alone, they added 1.4 million pounds, including 950,000 pounds just last week. That brings their third-quarter purchases to 2.3 million pounds in total.

At current prices, Sprott’s uranium inventory carries a market value of roughly 5.5 billion dollars. Analysts suggest the trust is prepared to continue raising funds, and with utility contracting expected to accelerate in the seasonally strong fourth quarter, further near-term buying looks likely.

The market response has been immediate. Uranium equities rallied broadly as Sprott’s activity reinforced a trend that has been building for years: physical pounds being removed from the market against a backdrop of constrained supply. But it’s important to remember that the spot price only tells part of the story. Most uranium is transacted through long-term contracts, many of which remain confidential. The public deals we do see point to a strengthening forward curve, with three-year prices around 84 dollars a pound and five-year prices near 94 dollars, both creeping higher in recent weeks. That suggests utilities may already be locking in volumes at levels above what is visible.

For investors, the message is clear. Sprott’s buying matters—it tightens an already tight market—but the real pressure point is production. Cameco, Kazatomprom, and smaller producers like Paladin have all trimmed their output guidance for 2025 and 2026. As supply expectations ratchet lower just as long-term contracting gathers momentum, the leverage increasingly sits with the miners, and equity valuations will follow where those fundamentals lead.

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Court Ruling Freezes Niger’s Uranium

The World Bank’s international court has ruled that Niger’s ruling junta cannot sell, transfer, or facilitate the transfer of uranium mined at Orano’s SOMAIR mine.

The background here is important. In December 2024, Niger’s military government seized SOMAIR from Orano, after already blocking Orano’s permit to develop the massive Imouraren deposit earlier that fall. The junta, which came to power in a July 2023 coup, has been moving to exert greater control over Niger’s resources while distancing itself from the West and drawing closer to Russia, China, and Turkey.

Orano, a French state-run company, is directly caught in the middle. France and most Western powers don’t recognize the junta, which leaves Niger looking to sell these assets to new partners—yet the court’s ruling prevents it from doing so. Until this is resolved, the uranium already mined at SOMAIR—about 2.2 million pounds—remains locked in the country under export restrictions.

Adding to the tension, the head of Orano Mining Niger was recently detained by Niger’s security agency, before the court ordered his release.

For investors, the key point is that these geopolitical standoffs further tighten an already constrained uranium supply picture. Niger has historically been one of the world’s top five producers. Any disruption there, layered on top of delays and underperformance elsewhere, magnifies the structural shortfall in the market. Situations like this don’t just affect supply—they harden the floor under uranium prices and reinforce the case for exposure to uranium equities..

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Russia Pushes Global Reactor Deals with BRICS Backing

Russia has been busy on the nuclear front this week, signing new deals to build reactors in countries across the Global South and East — including Uzbekistan, Ethiopia, and Iran.

The standout is Iran, where Moscow has agreed to construct eight new nuclear power plants in a package reportedly worth $25 billion. While details on the exact reactor count weren’t disclosed, eight plants suggest at least that many reactors, likely more.

Ethiopia and Uzbekistan also signed on, each committing to the development of a nuclear plant with the number of reactors yet to be specified.

But perhaps more important than the deals themselves were comments from President Vladimir Putin at the World Atomic Week International Forum. He emphasized that nuclear financing needs to be treated as a global issue and highlighted the New Development Bank — the lending arm of the BRICS nations — as a potential backer of future projects. With BRICS now including heavyweights like China, India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, the scale of potential capital behind this initiative shouldn’t be underestimated.

Putin also claimed that Russia doesn’t require countries to sign long-term uranium and fuel supply contracts when it builds reactors, presenting them as “no-strings-attached” partnerships. In practice, though, history shows that fuel agreements often follow, creating long-term economic ties between Moscow and its client states.

For investors, the takeaway is that Russia continues to use nuclear technology as a strategic lever — deepening influence in emerging markets while potentially securing downstream uranium and fuel supply agreements. This underscores the durability of global reactor growth, even outside the Western sphere, and reinforces the structural demand story underpinning uranium markets.

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