September 16, 2025: Western nations are struggling to replace Russian supply quickly enough

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This week on Uranium Spotlight Podcast: 

1. Spot price holds, volumes lag
2. Cameco expands in Europe
3. Ottawa snubs uranium in fast-track projects
4. Kazatomprom triples exploration

Sponsored by Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. (TSXV: PTU | OTCQB: PTUUF)
https://purepoint.ca/

Transcript

It’s Tuesday, September 16th, 2025, and this week on Uranium Spotlight: Spot prices steady but volumes thin, Cameco pushes deeper into Europe as Slovakia turns away from Russia, Ottawa leaves uranium off its fast-track project list, and the U.S.’s struggle to revive domestic production underscores Kazatomprom’s aggressive exploration push.

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Spot Price Holds, Volumes Lag

Uranium spot price closed last week at $75.95 per pound, a slight uptick from the prior week’s $75.80. On the surface, that looks steady, but the underlying activity tells a different story.

Spot market volumes remain extremely light. Only three spot transactions were confirmed last week, all for prompt delivery. In total, September’s spot volume so far sits just over one million pounds U3O8—well below the ten-year average of six million. Historically, much of September’s activity tends to occur in the final two weeks of the month, so investors will be watching closely to see if that pattern holds.

The week began with a single Monday deal at $76.75 per pound for delivery by Orano, but by Friday sellers were offering lower, culminating in a 100,000-pound transaction at $75 even. This softening reflects limited demand, with most buyers choosing to sit on the sidelines for now.

At the same time, the term market—where utilities secure longer-term supply—saw no new awards but remains active in the background. Several utilities are quietly soliciting bids for multi-year contracts extending into the 2030s. Notably, one non-U.S. utility is seeking over three million pounds of U3O8 for delivery between 2026 and 2029.

For investors, the takeaway is that the spot price is holding in the mid-70s, but volumes are thin and utilities are positioning themselves through term contracts rather than chasing spot pounds. This dynamic continues to highlight the fragility of near-term supply while reinforcing the importance of long-term contracting.

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Cameco Expands in Europe

Slovakia has just signed a supply agreement with Cameco for UF6—uranium hexafluoride—the product that comes out of the conversion stage of the fuel cycle. That’s the second step after mining and milling, where uranium ore is processed into U3O8.

This deal marks Cameco’s entry into a new Central European market while, at the same time, Rosatom—Russia’s state-owned fuel supplier, responsible for roughly 40% of global nuclear fuel production—loses yet another Western customer.

The UF6 headed to Slovakia still needs enrichment and fabrication before it can be used in their five Russian-built VVER-213 reactors. But that’s where Cameco’s joint venture with Brookfield, Westinghouse, becomes critical. Westinghouse has already demonstrated its ability to produce VVER fuel, helping Ukraine shift away from Russian supply after the 2022 invasion.

The trend is clear: another country has joined the list of Western buyers cutting ties with Rosatom. Add to that the European Union’s ongoing discussion about banning all Russian nuclear fuel, and Russia’s access to Western markets is shrinking fast. Still, Russia’s long-term growth prospects remain intact—China, India, and Russia itself are planning a massive wave of new reactor builds, and Rosatom remains a preferred partner for many of those projects.

That creates a widening split. Western nations are struggling to replace Russian supply quickly enough, even though Canada and Australia have the resource base to do so. The challenge isn’t geology—it’s the lack of built-out production capacity and the political will to bring new mines online at the pace needed.

For Cameco, the Slovakia deal adds yet another customer onto an already stretched supply base, reinforcing its role as a cornerstone supplier to the West.

For investors, the message is stark: the uranium market is fracturing along geopolitical lines. East and West may soon operate in separate pricing environments, and as supply chains strain under this division, the odds of a near-term supply crunch grow. That dynamic is exactly what could accelerate upward pressure on uranium prices and uranium equities.

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Ottawa Snubs Uranium in Fast-Track Projects

The Saskatchewan government expressed frustration this past weekend after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled the first five projects to be fast-tracked under his new Major Projects Office. Notably absent from that list—any uranium developments.

The initiative is designed to accelerate critical infrastructure across Canada and strengthen the country’s standing within the G7. The first batch of projects already includes a massive copper, silver, gold, and zinc mine in Saskatchewan. But Deputy Premier Jim Reiter argued that the list is incomplete without uranium, given Saskatchewan’s global leadership in high-grade supply.

Reiter also criticized Ottawa’s regulatory system, saying the very existence of the Major Projects Office highlights serious flaws that still haven’t been addressed. Premier Scott Moe is expected to raise the uranium issue directly with Carney in their upcoming discussions.

At the heart of this debate are three advanced uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin—NexGen’s Rook I, Denison’s Wheeler River, and Paladin’s Patterson Lake South, which it acquired last year from Fission Uranium. These represent some of the richest deposits in the world and are central to meeting future global demand.

For investors, the takeaway is clear: Saskatchewan, home to the highest-grade uranium on the planet, is signaling that Ottawa isn’t moving fast enough. With supply shortfalls looming and nuclear energy demand accelerating worldwide—from the United States to Europe and even Slovakia—the pressure is mounting. If federal support lags, timelines for new Canadian supply could slip, reinforcing the bullish case for uranium prices and the equities tied to them.

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Kazatomprom Triples Exploration

The U.S. sits at the center of the uranium supply challenge. With 93 reactors—the largest fleet in the world—America consumes more than 40 million pounds of uranium every year. Yet, domestic production has collapsed.

Back in 2010, U.S. mines produced 4.2 million pounds. By 2018 that had fallen to 1.5 million. Two years later, in 2020, U.S. production hit zero. Today, the number has inched back to just 700,000 pounds—a fraction of what’s required.

Even that 2010 figure pales against history. In 1980, U.S. mines delivered nearly 44 million pounds. The resource base is still there—about 55 million pounds are considered economic at $60 uranium—but what’s missing is the political will and the financial support to restart meaningful production.

The current administration is working on regulatory reforms, but easing red tape is only part of the story. Funding on a larger scale will be essential if the U.S. wants to reverse decades of decline.

On the ground, there’s no shortage of projects waiting. Energy Fuels has Bullfrog, Pinyon Plain, and La Sal. Laramide holds Crownpoint-Churchrock and La Jara Mesa. Uranium Energy Corp has a pipeline of in-situ recovery projects across Wyoming and Texas. The capacity exists—but without capital and permits, it stays idle.

For investors, the takeaway is clear: the bottleneck isn’t geology, it’s execution. Until the U.S. aligns policy, permitting, and financing, it will remain heavily dependent on foreign supply. That dynamic keeps pressure on global uranium markets, and it creates upside leverage for companies positioned to step in when U.S. production finally turns.