August 5, 2025: Long-term demand continues to build

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1. Russia eyes Niger uranium
2. Russia targets Tanzania reserves
3. Boss Energy  stumbles on costs and output
4. Cameco, KAP and Orano reinforce uranium bull case

Sponsored by Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. (TSXV: PTU | OTCQB: PTUUF)
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Transcript

This week on Uranium Spotlight: Term activity hightens, Russia steps into Niger and Tanzania, Boss Energy surprises and disappoints investors and three large producers release their 2025 results for the first half of the year.

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Spot Slips, Term Market Builds: July Uranium Market Recap

The uranium spot price closed last week at $70.95 per pound, down slightly from the prior week’s $72.00. That modest pullback reflects a quiet close to July, with the month ending on lower overall volume despite a relatively healthy number of deals.

In total, July saw 29 spot market transactions, but only 2.5 million pounds of U₃O₈ equivalent changed hands — the lowest monthly volume so far this year. What stood out was the surge in smaller-sized trades: thirteen 50,000-pound deals were recorded, just shy of the all-time monthly high. These smaller lots boosted activity counts but dragged down total pounds transacted.

Most of the action remained focused on prompt delivery, with 24 of the 29 deals scheduled for delivery within the next three months. That kind of near-term demand tends to keep a floor under pricing, but last week’s dip shows buyers aren’t chasing pounds just yet.

On the term side, however, activity remained robust. At least nine utilities made awards in July — six involving U₃O₈ and others tied to conversion and enrichment. Several major utilities are still evaluating offers for deliveries extending into the early 2030s, including one U.S. buyer looking for up to 400,000 pounds annually.

So while the spot market softened a touch last week, longer-term demand continues to build. For uranium equity investors, that’s a key signal: the utility contracting cycle is in motion, and while spot can drift week to week, the real structural tightening is happening in the term market.. 

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Russia Eyes Niger Uranium

Russia announced this week that it plans to mine uranium in Niger, alongside new agreements to cooperate on civil nuclear power projects in the country. As part of the deal, both governments signed a framework to collaborate on building nuclear reactors, while Russia’s energy minister confirmed their interest in tapping Niger’s uranium reserves.

This move highlights Niger’s growing role as a key flashpoint in the geopolitical struggle for control over global uranium supply. Since the 2023 military coup, Niger’s ruling junta has shifted decisively away from France and its Western allies, strengthening ties with Russia instead. That pivot has included the nationalization or cancellation of uranium mining licenses held by France’s state-owned company Orano—affecting three of its key projects.

Before these licenses were revoked, Niger had already made it nearly impossible to export uranium. First, it closed its border with Benin, citing security concerns. Then it failed to grant Orano the export permits needed to fly uranium out of the country, effectively freezing all outbound shipments.

Tensions escalated further when Orano Niger, the local subsidiary overseeing the company’s projects, had its offices raided. Several department heads were interrogated, and the director of the subsidiary was arbitrarily detained. His current whereabouts remain unknown.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to expand its influence over the global uranium trade, even as Western nations impose heavy sanctions on Russian nuclear materials. The result is a rapidly bifurcating uranium market—East versus West. Today, the Western world still represents the lion’s share of global uranium demand. But that may shift over the next five years, with China poised to overtake the U.S. in the total number of operating reactors.

For investors, the implications are significant: resource nationalism, geopolitical realignment, and East-West market fragmentation are all amplifying uranium supply risks. As Russia increases its foothold in uranium-rich regions like Niger, Western utilities will face growing challenges in securing stable, long-term supply. That tightening dynamic only strengthens the case for North American uranium projects—and for exposure to equities with secure, politically stable assets.

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Russia Targets Tanzania Reserves 

Russia appears to be tightening its grip on yet another corner of the global uranium trade—this time in Tanzania. The country hosts an estimated 309 million pounds of untapped uranium resources, and Russia’s state-owned Rosatom has just launched a pilot processing plant there, operated through its subsidiary, Mantra Tanzania.

Once the plant moves beyond pilot stage and into full production, it’s expected to deliver 6.6 million pounds of uranium annually. But that supply won't be heading west. Instead, it adds to the growing stream of uranium flowing directly to Russia, China, and their allies.

Over the past decade, Russia and China have led the world in building new nuclear power plants. Together with India, they’re set to dominate new builds for years to come. They’ve also secured long-term offtake agreements for much of Kazakhstan’s production—the world’s largest uranium supplier.

This latest move in Tanzania reinforces a broader trend: Russia and China are actively locking in global uranium supply, while Western nations remain underprepared. Without a strategic push to secure new sources of uranium—whether through exploration, partnerships, or domestic production—the West risks being caught short, not just in energy security, but in geopolitical leverage.

For investors, the message is clear: access to uranium supply is becoming increasingly bifurcated. Those companies with assets in stable jurisdictions—and the ability to bring them into production—will become even more valuable as global competition for fuel tightens..

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Boss Energy Stumbles on Costs and Output

Boss Energy has released its FY26 production and cost guidance for the Honeymoon uranium project—and the market didn’t like what it saw. The company now expects to produce 1.6 million pounds of U₃O₈ in the next fiscal year. That’s well below previous expectations that Honeymoon would hit nameplate production—about 2.45 million pounds annually—by 2026.

But the real shock came from the cost side.

Boss now projects all-in sustaining costs of US$41 to $45 per pound, a staggering increase from the roughly US$25–30 per pound used in prior feasibility studies. That’s a jump of more than 60%, driven largely by poorer-than-expected geology in the new East Kalkaroo wellfields. The company’s recent drilling revealed less continuity in mineralization than anticipated, which means they’ll need to drill more wells—at higher cost—for the same output.

Sustaining and project capital spending will also be high this year, up to A$62 million in total, and an independent review of their feasibility assumptions is now underway. While Boss says the project will still generate positive cash flow, the guidance revision marks a significant reset in investor expectations.

And the market responded. Boss’s share price dropped over 40% in the days following the announcement, wiping out hundreds of millions in value. For a company widely seen as a leader among near-term uranium producers, this was a rude awakening.

For uranium investors, the message is clear: ramping up a uranium mine—even one that’s been in production before—is never straightforward. Cost inflation, geological surprises, and scale-up risks can derail even the most promising timelines. With supply already lagging reactor demand, delays like this only heighten the structural tightness in the market—and increase the strategic value of earlier-stage projects that have room to deliver high grades at manageable cost.

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Cameco, KAP & Orano Reinforce Uranium Bull Case

Cameco, Kazatomprom, and Orano—three of the uranium sector’s most influential suppliers—have all reported strong results for the first half of 2025, reinforcing the structural tightness in global uranium markets.

Cameco posted net earnings of $321 million for Q2 and $391 million for the first half of the year, a dramatic increase over 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for the uranium segment rose 43% year-over-year, driven by higher sales volumes and improved realized prices. They’ve increased their expected average realized price for 2025 to $87 per pound, up from $84, and confirmed production guidance of 18 million pounds at both McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake. Cameco’s long-term contract book remains deep, with deliveries averaging 28 million pounds per year through 2029, and their share of Westinghouse’s EBITDA has jumped significantly due to reactor construction in Europe.

Kazatomprom reaffirmed its production outlook while highlighting significant market momentum. KAP also celebrated the startup of a new processing plant at its South Tortkuduk JV with Orano, bringing it closer to full capacity by 2026.

Orano reported a €400 million year-over-year increase in revenue and a sharp rise in EBITDA to €727 million, up 58%. Mining segment earnings soared, thanks to higher volumes and a recovery from 2024 Niger-related disruptions. Orano also announced major expansion steps—including progress at Kazakhstan’s South Tortkuduk and Uzbekistan’s South Djengeldi projects.

For investors, the message is clear: uranium supply growth is constrained, but demand and contract activity are building. Producers are locking in higher prices and boosting production capacity—but only slowly. This ongoing lag between investment and output supports a bullish long-term outlook for uranium equities.