July 29, 2025: Utilities may soon have to accept higher term pricing

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1. Uranium stuck at 72/$80
2. Eu-US deal tightens uranium market
3. Tanzania's uranium won't solve the West's supply crunch
4. Paladin's setback highlights supply fragility
5. Purepoint's Dorado discovery grows

Sponsored by Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. (TSXV: PTU | OTCQB: PTUUF)
https://purepoint.ca/

Transcript

This week on Uranium Spotlight: the EU‑US energy deal tightens the uranium market, Tanzania’s massive reserves fall deeper under Russian influence, Paladin Energy’s Langer Heinrich mine faces major production setbacks, and new high‑grade drill results from the Dorado JV in the Athabasca Basin point to expanding discovery potential.

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Uranium Spot Slips as Term Demand Builds

The uranium spot price closed last week at $72.00 per pound, up $0.50 from the prior week’s close of $71.50. The long-term price for July remained unchanged at $80.00 per pound, a level that has held firm for many months now despite fluctuations in the spot market.

The week began with a flurry of activity, with six spot market transactions reported Monday and Tuesday. Prices climbed as high as $72.50 mid-week before demand softened, pulling the spot price back to $72.00 by Friday’s close. Transaction volumes tapered off in the second half of the week as offers began to ease.

For the month, the Ux U3O8 Monthly Average Price slipped to $72.33 per pound, down $2.03. Forward prices also eased, with the 3-year and 5-year indicators ending at $83.00 and $90.50 per pound, respectively. Delivery-specific pricing now ranges from $70.50 at Cameco and Orano to $71.00 at ConverDyn.

Looking beyond the spot market, the term market continues to show healthy activity. Several U.S. utilities are evaluating offers for delivery windows beginning in 2028 and extending into the early 2030s, with some requests as large as 400,000 pounds per year. Non-U.S. utilities are also expected to issue new tenders in the coming weeks. And while the long-term price remains anchored at $80.00 per pound, that level looks increasingly light given the widening supply gap and the cost inflation impacting new mine development. Utilities may soon have to accept higher term pricing if they want to secure sufficient supply into the next decade.

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EU-US Deal Tightens Uranium Market

The European Union has announced a new deal with the United States to purchase more energy products from the U.S. and significantly reduce imports from Russia. That deal now includes nuclear fuel and nuclear technology—and frankly, that may be the only part of this agreement that really makes sense.

The EU has committed to buy $250 billion worth of U.S. energy products annually for three years. To put that in perspective, that figure is larger than the entire European energy market as it stands today and far more than the U.S. could realistically supply. Unless Europe plans to purchase significant amounts of new nuclear technology—reactors, enrichment capacity, and the fuel to run them—these numbers just don’t add up. And if that’s the case, it could directly compete with Europe’s own domestic nuclear technology industry, which is still trying to scale up.

Even if the demand was there, U.S. production simply isn’t high enough to meet those volumes. Both sides are billing this as a game‑changing agreement for transatlantic energy ties, but the biggest impact may actually fall on Russia, not the EU or the U.S.

What is clear is that Europe is determined to end its reliance on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel. The EU sourced more than 15% of its natural uranium from Russia last year and even higher percentages of its finished nuclear fuel. When you include Russian allies, roughly 40% of Europe’s uranium supply chain was tied to these sources.

As the West pivots away from Russian uranium and nuclear fuel, it will need to find reliable alternatives—and fast. Existing suppliers will need to step up production, but that won’t happen without fresh investment in exploration, mining, conversion, and enrichment capacity. Europe operates over 100 nuclear reactors, and without new supply coming online, the market could quickly tighten.

For uranium investors, this matters. The EU’s push to diversify away from Russian fuel will add structural demand to an already strained uranium supply chain. That means increased pressure on non‑Russian producers to ramp up production—and more capital flowing into the sector. This policy shift could be a long‑term catalyst for higher uranium prices and for equities tied to future supply.

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Tanzania’s Uranium Won’t Solve the West’s Supply Crunch

Tanzania has released reports estimating over 306 billion pounds of recoverable uranium in the country – a staggering figure. But as investors know, reserves alone mean little if there’s no mine producing from them.

Alongside these reports, Tanzania confirmed that a mine is now under development by Mantra Tanzania, a subsidiary of Uranium One, which itself is owned by ROSATOM, the Russian state-controlled nuclear energy and uranium giant. These projects would open up one of the largest undeveloped uranium regions globally – right in the middle of a supply crisis.

But will this new production solve the problem? Absolutely not. Any uranium mined here will almost certainly flow east to Russia and China, not into Western markets. The West’s structural supply deficit remains unchanged.

This is a classic case of greenfield development, the type of new production the West desperately needs but hasn’t meaningfully advanced for years. Without fresh projects coming online, Western nuclear utilities will face increasing pressure in the years ahead. Meanwhile, ROSATOM is expected to lock up Tanzania’s uranium supply through long-term agreements, ensuring it stays in Russian hands for the foreseeable future.

This development underscores the broader challenge: despite nuclear energy being one of the most reliable sources of baseload power, the fuel supply chain is becoming more precarious. With geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and energy security battles playing out on the global stage, securing uranium is only going to get harder.

For investors and the uranium market, the takeaway is clear: the West’s supply crunch isn’t going away. The uranium price will continue to be driven by the lack of new Western supply, and any assets outside Russian influence will remain strategically – and financially – important.

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Paladin’s Setback Highlights Supply Fragility

Paladin Energy has just updated its production guidance for the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia after pulling previous guidance earlier this year. That pause followed the heavy rainfall and flooding that hit the region for several days, disrupting operations.

According to the new guidance, Paladin now expects to produce about 3 million pounds of uranium by the end of 2025, and between 4 and 4.4 million pounds annually by the end of 2026. Compare that to their original target of hitting full nameplate capacity—6 million pounds per year—by this December, and you can see the scale of the setback. That’s roughly half of what they originally planned to bring into the market.

Interestingly, other Namibian producers like Husab and Rossing—both Chinese-owned—were largely unaffected by the same storm, suggesting Langer Heinrich was uniquely vulnerable. This highlights how localized weather events can severely impact individual assets. And these extreme weather patterns are becoming more frequent.

On top of that, Namibia carries growing geopolitical risk, especially for western companies. The country has been strengthening ties with Russia and China, a trend that’s becoming harder to ignore as new partnerships and mining deals surface.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of one of the tightest supply-demand environments we’ve seen in decades. In 2024, global reactor demand outstripped uranium supply by more than a third, and that gap is expected to widen. Meanwhile, western utilities are scrambling to diversify away from Russia and China, who control most of Kazakhstan’s uranium output and recently consolidated influence in Niger’s uranium sector as well.

For investors, the takeaway is clear: the supply side remains extremely fragile. Weather disruptions, geopolitical shifts, and the growing east-west divide in nuclear fuel supply chains are compounding already significant deficits. Each new disruption has the potential to pressure uranium prices higher and increase the strategic value of western-aligned production and exploration projects.

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Purepoint’s Dorado Discovery Grows

IsoEnergy and Purepoint Uranium have followed up their June Nova discovery at the Dorado joint venture with even stronger results, reinforcing the potential scale of this emerging Athabasca Basin find.

The initial drill holes at the Q48 target, reported in early July, confirmed uranium mineralization with downhole radiometric readings as high as 79,800 counts per second. Those intercepts, occurring in basement rocks just 20 to 60 metres below the unconformity, pointed to a classic Athabasca-style system.

Now, the joint venture has extended that mineralization 70 metres to the northeast with drill hole PG25‑07A. This step-out hole returned an impressive 14 metres averaging 11,100 counts per second, including a peak reading of 110,800. That’s not only the thickest mineralized interval encountered to date, but it also confirms that grades are improving along the trend. Importantly, the zone remains open in the direction of increasing radioactivity. Drilling northeast is paused due to wet ground conditions but is expected to resume this winter when frozen ground allows easier access.

With assays pending on a rush basis, the joint venture will continue drilling through the rest of the summer at Dorado, focusing on additional priority targets identified across the property. This ongoing work is designed to build on the momentum at Q48 and further test the broader potential of the project.

For investors, these results matter. A step-out of this size with increasing grade and thickness suggests Dorado could host a sizable high-grade uranium system. In a market still struggling with structural supply deficits, discoveries in the Athabasca Basin—especially on shallow targets like Q48—carry outsized leverage for both project partners and the broader uranium sector.