May 20, 2025: The question now is whether buyers will blink or sellers will soften

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1. Quiet market, firm sellers, waiting buyers
2. Orano's Niger exit signals geopolitical shift in uranium supply
3. India clears path for nuclear surge
4. Kazatomprom, sulphuric acid, and the shifting supply chain
5. Denison clears path to build Phoenix

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Transcript

This week on Uranium Spotlight, Orano exists Niger, India continues to open up to nuclear and Kazatomprom looks to resolve its sulfuric acid problems.

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Quiet Market, Firm Sellers, Waiting Buyers

The uranium spot price closed the week at $70.50 per pound, ticking up by $0.50 from the previous week’s close. While that’s a modest move, it continues a broader trend we’ve seen since mid-April, driven largely by increased utility interest and repositioning across the market.

But despite that upward momentum, spot market activity has slowed notably. Over the past two weeks, the number of reported transactions has dropped sharply. Market participants seem to be pausing—likely digesting recent utility requests across spot, near-term, and mid-term windows. It’s typical to see a pullback in pricing after large utility tenders, as unsold supply returns to the market—but that didn’t happen this time. Sellers held firm on offers, and buyers appeared reluctant to chase prices higher. The result? A standoff—no formal trades were recorded last week, and bid/offer spreads remained wide.

Still, the market wasn’t entirely quiet. Limited off-market volume was tracked, and a few active utility requests remain in play, including a non-U.S. utility seeking around 500,000 pounds for August delivery.

In the term market, it was even quieter—no new contracts, no major awards. A few longer-dated inquiries are underway, including U.S. and non-U.S. utilities seeking UF6 and EUP deliveries starting in 2026 and 2028.

So while the price held firm at $70.50, volume remains thin and positioning cautious. This kind of activity—quiet but with undercurrents—often precedes larger moves. The question now is whether buyers will blink, or sellers will soften.

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Orano’s Niger Exit Signals Geopolitical Shift in Uranium Supply

Last week, we covered the Nigerien military government's raid on the offices of Orano’s subsidiaries—Orano being the French state-owned uranium company operating in the region. At the time, Orano had lost contact with its in-country representative and was unaware of his whereabouts.

We now know that the individual—who serves as Director of Orano Mining Niger, the company's lead subsidiary in the country—was arrested and taken to the General Directorate of External Documentation and Surveillance. Orano is calling the arrest arbitrary and has filed legal actions in Niger, citing illegal detention, confiscation of property, and violations of their employees’ rights.

This escalation appears to be part of a broader effort by Niger’s military government to dismantle lingering French influence in the region. While rooted in post-colonial tensions, this anti-French campaign is likely being encouraged—if not strategically supported—by Russia and its allies in China, Turkey, and elsewhere. The objective: displace France from a resource-rich, strategically vital part of West Africa and gain greater control over critical minerals, particularly uranium.

Russia, already dominant in global uranium enrichment, reactor construction, and fuel fabrication, has a clear incentive to secure natural uranium assets. Niger’s government, which has aligned itself more closely with Moscow in recent months, appears willing to facilitate that pivot.

On Monday, the Financial Times reported that Orano is now actively seeking to sell its uranium operations in Niger. While no buyers were named, Orano confirmed to Reuters that they’re proceeding with legal claims in both international and Nigerien courts—and that multiple parties have expressed interest in acquiring the assets.

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India Clears Path for Nuclear Surge

India has just taken a significant step toward accelerating its nuclear energy ambitions. Following a government committee review, new policies are being adopted that open the door to private investment in nuclear development—something previously restricted. Just as importantly, the government is easing liability rules for reactor operators, aligning them more closely with international standards. That shift alone could unlock a wave of new financing.

What does this mean for the uranium market? Potentially, a lot.

India already has six reactors under construction and plans to build 18 more by 2032. These aren't just state-driven projects anymore. Major Indian conglomerates are moving in. NTPC—India’s largest utility and a dominant coal plant operator—is entering the nuclear space. So is Tata Group, a Fortune 500 infrastructure powerhouse with experience in rail, airports, and industrial projects.

NTPC is already working with Holtec, a U.S.-based reactor designer, to bring American technology and expertise into India’s buildout. And with recent U.S. policy changes encouraging cross-border nuclear cooperation, this partnership is likely the first of many.

For uranium investors, this is another meaningful signal. India is serious about scaling nuclear. With the policy and investment barriers coming down, demand for uranium fuel—especially in the second half of this decade—could be far stronger than many models currently assume.

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Kazatomprom, Sulphuric Acid, and the Shifting Supply Chain

Kazatomprom has recently faced challenges hitting its production targets—primarily due to a shortage of sulphuric acid, a critical input for in-situ recovery mining. To address this, the company is now building its own sulphuric acid plant, dedicated entirely to meeting its internal needs.

Sulphuric acid is in high demand, not just for uranium mining, but also for agriculture and industrial use. Kazakhstan, while the world’s top uranium producer, is also a major grain exporter, which puts further pressure on domestic acid supply. By securing its own dedicated feedstock, Kazatomprom is positioned to ramp up production across several mines—particularly at JV Inkai, its joint venture with Cameco, where output has recently underperformed.

This development could provide a near-term benefit to Western partners like Cameco. But it's important to note that many of Kazakhstan’s next-generation, high-capacity uranium projects are joint ventures with Russian and Chinese entities. Meanwhile, older mines with Western ties are approaching the end of their life. As a result, the long-term boost from this increased acid supply may primarily serve Russian and Chinese interests, rather than Western utilities.

The broader picture is this: Russian and Chinese influence over the global nuclear fuel cycle is growing—and not just in Kazakhstan. We’ve seen similar trends in Niger, and more recently in Namibia, where new deals are deepening their reach. These moves are gradually tightening the noose on Western access to uranium, shrinking the pool of politically aligned suppliers.

At this point, Canada and Australia represent the West’s most secure sources of uranium. But even that is complicated—Australia, despite holding the world’s largest uranium reserves, bans uranium mining in six of its eight states.

Even India, which has ambitious nuclear growth plans, could soon face difficulty securing enough fuel for its reactors.

This backdrop—a widening supply gap and a market increasingly split along geopolitical lines—makes the need for new, greenfield uranium production more urgent than ever. And arguably, the best place to bring that online is Canada’s Athabasca Basin. It offers not only the highest-grade uranium deposits on the planet but also a stable, business-friendly jurisdiction that’s actively working to accelerate mine approvals.

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Denison Clears Path to Build Phoenix

Denison Mines has released its Q1 2025 results, and its Phoenix ISR project continues to lead the way toward new Canadian uranium production.

The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission has scheduled public hearings for October and December — the final regulatory step needed before construction can begin. Denison is targeting a construction start in early 2026, with first production from Phoenix still expected by mid-2028. That would make it the first large-scale uranium mine developed in northern Saskatchewan since Cigar Lake over a decade ago.

Engineering is already 75% complete. Denison has invested over $7 million so far and committed another $67 million toward long-lead items. With 2.2 million pounds of uranium in inventory, strong cash reserves, and no debt, the company remains in a solid financial position to fund pre-construction work without dilution.

At the McClean Lake Joint Venture with Orano Canada, preparations are underway to launch the 2025 SABRE mining program at McClean North. This will mark the first commercial-scale test of the SABRE borehole mining method, potentially offering a new low-impact approach to uranium extraction.

Denison also strengthened its board this quarter. New additions include former Ontario Power Generation CEO Ken Hartwick and Wes Carson from Wheaton Precious Metals — adding deep nuclear and mining expertise as the company transitions from development toward production.