April 29, 2025: There is a structural supply deficit

1. Uranium spot price first as utilities test the market
2. Saskatchewan's uranium surge
3. Uranium supply crisis deepens
4. Africa's shifting uranium power dynamics
5. IsoEnergy expands Hurricane deposit and joins NYSE American

Sponsored by Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. (TSXV: PTU | OTCQB: PTUUF)
https://purepoint.ca/

Transcript

This week on Uranium Spotlight, Saskatchewan uranium numbers are in, China and India deepen the uranium crisis, Western Access to African uranium comes under threat and IsoEnergy strengthens its position with a New York Stock Exchange Listing

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Uranium Spot Price Firms as Utilities Test the Market

The spot price of uranium closed last week at $66.85 per pound, up $1.75 over the week. The long-term price remained steady for the fourth consecutive month at $80.00.

Spot market activity stayed moderate, with five transactions booked between Tuesday and Friday. That brings the total for April to 5.2 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent across 35 transactions. Monday started quietly, but an uptick in midweek activity, including a U.S. utility stepping in with a mid-term delivery request, firmed up both bids and offers. As a result, delivery prices at Cameco, ConverDyn, and Orano locations all moved higher, helping spot prices trend upward into Friday’s close.

April also saw the UxC 3-Year and 5-Year Forward Prices increase, now sitting at $81 and $89 per pound, respectively — a reflection of how utilities are beginning to think longer term.

On the term side, new mid-term interest emerged, but formal long-term contracting stayed thin. A handful of utilities are in the market with near-term and mid-term needs, while others continue discussions behind the scenes. Notably, ongoing concerns over potential tariffs and recent production hiccups are nudging utilities to move more quickly than expected.

Overall, while spot market volumes were modest, the firmer price action — especially with utilities probing for mid-term coverage — points to continued tightening beneath the surface.

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Saskatchewan's Uranium Surge

Saskatchewan has just released its uranium production report for 2024, and the numbers are telling an important story for investors. The total value of uranium sales jumped 61.5%, from $1.6 billion in 2023 to $2.6 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, actual production only increased by 28%, reaching 36 million tonnes.

In other words, the value growth nearly doubled the production growth — a clear sign that higher uranium prices are beginning to work their way through the system.

Energy and Resources Minister Colleen Young commented, "The strong growth of our world-class uranium industry is great news for Saskatchewan. With our abundant, high-quality reserves and a stable regulatory approach, we’re optimistic about our increasing role in global energy security." She added that production should continue to rise, with the McClean Lake mine resuming operations this year and other major projects nearing construction.

However, it's important to keep perspective. Despite these optimistic projections, Canada remains the third-slowest country in the world for bringing new mines online — trailing only the United States and Zambia — with an average mine development lead time of 27 years.

Saskatchewan rightly celebrated exceeding its $2 billion uranium industry value target six years ahead of schedule, but this milestone owes far more to fluctuating uranium prices than to faster permitting or mine development. Recall that uranium briefly spiked above $100 per pound last year before settling back to around $65 today.

Looking ahead, it seems unlikely that Saskatchewan’s production will grow fast enough to match surging global demand. With demand expected to triple and a structural supply deficit already in place — running about 50 to 60 million pounds short annually — market fundamentals suggest uranium prices will need to move higher again.

Saskatchewan may soon celebrate another record in the value of uranium produced — but it probably won’t be because of a surge in raw production volumes.

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Uranium Supply Crisis Deepens

Demand for uranium is already set to surge over the next 15 years—and supply is already on a collision course with crisis. Now, two of the world’s biggest growth markets, China and India, are making major announcements that will drive demand even higher.

This week, China confirmed it has approved the construction of ten new reactors, keeping pace with its plan to greenlight ten new projects every year for the next fifteen years.

Meanwhile, India announced it could allow up to 49% foreign investment in its nuclear sector—a major policy shift aimed at speeding up reactor construction by tapping into international capital. India is targeting a twelvefold increase in nuclear capacity, aiming for 100 gigawatts—the equivalent of almost 100 Westinghouse AP-1000 reactors.

Together, these announcements point to even faster and steeper demand growth, while the supply side continues to fall dangerously behind.

As John Ciampaglia of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust recently warned, “There is a structural supply deficit, and it won’t be fixed unless the world builds a lot of new greenfield capacity—sooner rather than later. New projects are quite critical. They need to come online.”

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Africa’s Shifting Uranium Power Dynamics

As geopolitical risks continue to rise across the uranium sector, Africa is becoming an increasingly important region to watch.

Countries like Niger and Namibia rank among the world’s top uranium producers. Yet despite their importance, Western nations have been slow to build meaningful partnerships, while Russia and China have steadily expanded their influence across the continent — investing time, money, and political capital, particularly in uranium-rich regions.

Following a coup in 2023, Niger’s Western-aligned government was overthrown, and by 2024, French-owned uranium mines were seized. Niger has since strengthened its ties with Russia, further shifting the balance of control over uranium supply.

In Namibia, Russia is now working with the government to develop a domestic uranium processing plant — a strategic move that would allow more Namibian uranium to flow toward Russian interests. Chinese companies already own Namibia’s two largest uranium mines, Husab and Rossing. Although several Western companies are active there, Namibia’s new push to build nuclear reactors could open the door even wider for Russian and Chinese involvement, as they dominate new reactor construction worldwide.

Meanwhile, Western partnerships are taking shape elsewhere. Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, for example, has signed a deal to build reactors in Nigeria — a country with almost no uranium reserves. In contrast, Niger — now more aligned with Russia — ranked seventh globally for uranium exports in 2022, and together with Namibia, the two countries accounted for about 15% of global uranium production.

Complicating matters further, Niger and Nigeria now find themselves on opposite sides of a regional power struggle following Niger’s coup. Nigeria leads a 15-country Western-aligned bloc called ECOWAS, while Niger has allied itself with Mali and Burkina Faso — all three now moving away from Western influence.

In short, while Western efforts in Africa remain focused on building political alliances, they are often missing the key uranium-producing nations. And with Kazakhstan’s production already largely committed to Russia and China, and Uzbekistan remaining firmly in Russia’s orbit, the West is becoming increasingly reliant on Canada and Australia for uranium supply. Even there, challenges remain: uranium mining is currently banned in six of Australia’s eight states.

For investors tracking uranium equities and supply risks, Africa’s evolving geopolitical landscape is a critical factor to monitor closely.

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IsoEnergy Expands Hurricane Deposit and Joins NYSE American

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IsoEnergy continues to strengthen its position as a major player in the uranium sector. The company will begin trading on the NYSE American under the ticker symbol "ISOU" starting Monday, May 5th, while maintaining its TSX listing. This move provides greater visibility and access for U.S. investors as uranium markets tighten and institutional interest grows.

Meanwhile, IsoEnergy has completed its winter drilling program at Larocque East in the eastern Athabasca Basin, successfully advancing its flagship Hurricane deposit — already the world's highest-grade indicated uranium resource. The winter program intersected strongly elevated radioactivity in multiple holes east of the existing Hurricane deposit, confirming structural continuity and expansion potential.

Importantly, drilling at Area D, located 2.8 kilometers east of Hurricane, returned the strongest radioactivity recorded outside the main deposit to date. These results point to significant regional potential along the nine-kilometer Larocque Trend, with summer drilling now planned to follow up on these promising zones.

With a portfolio that also includes standby mines in Utah and a toll milling agreement with Energy Fuels, IsoEnergy is uniquely positioned for near-term and long-term leverage to rising uranium prices. Geochemical assays are pending, but so far, IsoEnergy is delivering exactly what uranium equity investors are looking for: growth, scalability, and increasingly clear pathways to production.