April 15, 2025: While spot market may look quiet, strategic positioning is already underway

1. Quiet week, subtle shift
2. Red Book 2024 undershoots the uranium supply crunch
3. Kazakhstan signals eastward shift in uranium strategy 
4. Russia tightens its grip on African uranium

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Transcript

This week on Uranium Spotlight,the uranium market delivers mixed signals, the 2024 Red Book is released, Kazakhstan signals an eastward shift and Russia tightens its grip on African uranium.

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Quiet Week, Subtle Shift

The spot uranium market saw only a modest uptick last week, rising $0.05 to close at $64.55 per pound—but beneath that small move was a week of mixed signals.

With much of the industry gathered in Montreal for the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle conference, spot activity slowed as expected. Traders and suppliers prioritized face-to-face discussions over transactions. That said, a few larger-volume deals were still completed, pushing total weekly volume to nearly 1.3 million pounds—April’s monthly volume to 2.5 million - and year-to-date spot volume just shy of 13.6 million pounds.

Price movement remained flat for most of the week, with some late-week upward pressure showing at Cameco and ConverDyn delivery points. By Friday, those localized premiums pushed the daily spot price to $64.55, even as a roughly $1 spread between delivery locations held steady.

What’s noteworthy for equity investors is the growing utility interest. Several recent spot transactions involved utilities, and new inquiries are now active for deliveries as early as August and as far out as 2026. Term contracting, however, remains quiet—formal demand is still trickling in, with most activity happening behind the scenes in direct negotiations.

All of this reflects a market in wait-and-see mode: growing demand signals, lingering macro uncertainty, and traders watching tariffs and equity markets just as closely as the uranium price. For investors, it’s a reminder that while the spot market may look quiet, strategic positioning is already underway.

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Red Book 2024 Undershoots the Uranium Supply Crunch

Last week, the OECD’s Nuclear Energy Agency, in partnership with the IAEA, released the 2024 edition of what’s commonly known as the Red Book—their flagship uranium market report. Officially titled Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand, it outlines global uranium production through 2022, incorporates some updated data from 2023 and early 2024, and projects supply and demand scenarios out to 2050—and even to 2100.

But for investors, the key takeaway is what’s coming over the next few years.

The Red Book includes a “high demand, low production” scenario in which we face a uranium supply shortfall by 2027. But here’s the problem: those projections were largely based on data from 2021. In reality, production has already fallen 10–12% below those expectations. So that shortfall? It’s not years away. It’s accelerating.

Even if no new reactors come online—which, of course, they are—there’s still a looming supply gap. Why? Because the economics don’t yet support new mine development at $60 spot or even $80 long-term. Many developers remain on the sidelines, and those trying to advance projects often lack the experience to bring a mine into production on time.

What the Red Book suggests could happen by 2027 now looks more like a deadline—at the latest. Analysts are pointing to uranium hitting $100 per pound potentially by mid-year, and even then, production won’t magically ramp up. The pipeline is simply not ready.

Look at NexGen’s Rook I or Paladin’s Patterson Lake South. Neither will be producing in time to impact this near-term crunch. That’s based on guidance from the companies themselves. And many of the other so-called “restart” or new projects still don’t have a start date at all—yet the Red Book assumes they’ll be in production soon.

The reality, especially since the Red Book’s cutoff period, paints a more urgent picture. The supply side is already falling short, and that gap is widening. Demand keeps climbing, supply remains sluggish, and the market’s response is lagging.

For uranium equity investors, that disconnect is the opportunity—and the risk.

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Kazakhstan Signals Eastward Shift in Uranium Strategy

Kazakhstan made headlines this week, not just for narrowing down its shortlist of vendors to build a domestic nuclear reactor, but more significantly, for signing a uranium supply deal with Turkey—aimed at fuelling Turkey’s Russian-built reactors.

Now, on its own, that agreement might seem like a routine export contract. But the messaging that came out of the press conference was anything but ordinary. Officials from both Turkey and Kazakhstan made it clear—they envision a future where Russia and its allies dominate the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from mining to enrichment, and even reactor construction.

Kazatomprom’s representative went as far as to say, “Turkish, Kazakh, and Russian flags could easily fly over all five stages of the nuclear fuel cycle.” The alliance they're painting includes not just Russia and Kazakhstan, but also Turkey, Niger, and Uzbekistan. China, while only a modest uranium miner, already plays a dominant role across the rest of the cycle.

And while Turkey is often described as a neutral bridge between East and West—being both a NATO member and a close Russian ally—on nuclear matters, its alignment with the East is becoming clear. Russia is building Turkey’s reactors, and Niger has hinted at transferring seized uranium mines—previously owned by France’s Orano—to Turkish state entities.

Kazakhstan’s representative also pointed out that back in 2008 and 2009, they tried to partner with Western nations like Canada and Japan to industrialize their nuclear sector. But they say those doors stayed shut. Russia and China, by contrast, helped develop Kazakhstan’s Ulba Metallurgical Plant, which now produces 200 tonnes of nuclear fuel annually.

The implication for investors? Kazakh uranium, which today feeds Russia and China, may soon be off-limits to everyone else. The Kazatomprom official laid out a phased vision: shift from exporting raw uranium to selling only converted and enriched fuel… and eventually, not even that. In his words: “We wouldn’t sell uranium at all; instead, we’d convert it into electricity ourselves and export energy products.”

That might sound far off, but the direction of travel is clear. And let’s be honest—Kazakhstan isn’t stringing undersea cables to supply electricity to the U.S. or Europe. Their output will power Russia and China. And as the world’s largest uranium producer, if Kazakhstan pulls back from the open market, the rest of the world—particularly Western utilities—will be left scrambling.

This isn’t just a geopolitical curiosity. It’s a strategic shift with real consequences for uranium supply security—and it reinforces why exposure to new sources of uranium, especially in politically stable jurisdictions, should matter to long-term investors.

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Russia Tightens Its Grip on African Uranium 

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In a move with serious implications for the uranium market, Russia has just struck a deal with Namibia—one that could reshape global supply lines. Under the agreement, Russia will provide Namibia with the technology and support needed to develop its first uranium processing plant. In return, Namibia will supply Russia with raw uranium in the near term.

Now, why should this matter to uranium investors?

Namibia isn’t just another player—it’s the world’s third-largest uranium producer. And paired with Niger—which held the number five spot before its uranium output was halted by a coup—these two African nations have, in recent years, produced more uranium than either Canada or Australia. That’s according to the OECD-NEA Red Book for 2021 and 2022. So when you consider that Niger’s mines are currently frozen and Russia is stepping in to secure Namibia’s output, what you’re looking at is a serious eastward shift in control over global uranium flows.

Historically, uranium production in both countries was dominated by western or at least non-aligned interests. But that’s changing fast. With the West largely on the sidelines, Russia and its allies are steadily gaining influence—through a combination of diplomacy, resource partnerships, and in some cases, more covert means.

And here’s the problem: the West isn’t positioned to pick up the slack. Six out of eight Australian states have banned uranium mining. That leaves Canada as the last major Western producer standing—but Canada can’t supply half the world’s nuclear fleet on its own.

So unless we see a coordinated Western response—diplomatic, economic, and strategic—Russia’s grip on global uranium markets will only tighten. They’re playing the long game: offering infrastructure, security, and media influence to entrench control over critical mineral supply. Meanwhile, American soft power is flailing, and Europe is still trying to find its footing.

For investors, the message is clear: supply security is becoming as much a geopolitical issue as it is a technical one. And with that comes volatility—but also opportunity, especially for explorers and producers operating in stable Western  jurisdictions.